When will the real recession be over?

Last week, the Bank of Canada announced that the Canadian economy had begun to forecast positive growth – however slight – indicating the end of the recession.

This announcement surprised me, to say the least. Unemployment in Canada is still rising, record numbers of people are now on EI, and thousands more who cannot access it are struggling to make ends meet.

The announcement was tempered with caution that it may be a while yet before new economic growth leads to job creation once again. As in past recessions, there is expected to be a lag between the recovery of the markets and a return to normal employment levels.

This has been noted by a number of economists. Last week, Andrew Jackson posted a blog on the Progressive Economics Forum in which he expresses his skepticism about the end of the recession. He writes:

“My guess is that we are still very far from the peak recession unemployment rate as the impacts of massive manufacturing job losses start to cascade into private - and even public - services, and that impacts on savings and spending will increase rather than dissipate.”

EI reform, as Chandra has blogged on several times about, is a key way to help keep individuals and families from falling into poverty, and also acts as a strong economic stimulus. While it may be months before Parliament makes any headway in reforming EI, a slowly recovering economy should not be used to justify a lack of action on EI reform.

My question is: when will the real recession – the one that is impacting the average person – be over? At this point it looks like it may be months, or years, before we are able to answer that question.