EI Watch: Fun with numbers

Last week’s Employment Insurance numbers revealed that while EI claims are still increasing, the number of Canadians receiving benefits in August dropped. 22,500 more claims were filed, but 19,000 fewer Canadians received benefits.

According to Erin Weir of the Progressive Economics blog, we should not start celebrating the recovery of the job market: while total employment rose in August, the labour force also expanded. Thus, Weir concludes, 68,000 workers were competing for only 27,000 new jobs. It is likely, then, that a good proportion of those who are no longer receiving EI did not find new work, but simply exhausted their benefits.

The problem is, however, that no one knows how many Canadians have exhausted benefits. As the Globe and Mail reported last week, and Andrew Jackson noted previously, Canada does not publish official numbers for unemployed Canadians who have exhausted their benefits. Statistics Canada tracks the number of claims and the total number of dollars being paid out, but there is no way to tell from the data whether people are leaving for new employment or if they simply run out of time.

This presents multiple challenges. Without understanding how many people leave EI for work and how many run out of benefits, it is impossible to provide good analysis of the program and to make effective changes where required. Would these numbers have an impact on the analysis of Bill C-50, the legislation extending benefits of long-tenured workers with few EI claims? We don’t know.

Secondly, it is difficult for governments to plan for welfare caseloads. Provincial governments have no idea how many of those on EI are likely to turn to social assistance in the very near future as their benefits run out. This is a challenge for budgeting and delivery – at a time when welfare rates are already very high due to the recession.

Speaking of Bill C-50, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities (HUMA) sent it back to the House of Commons last week with no amendments. The bill is expected to pass third reading shortly.

The HUMA committee also approved Bill C-241 without amendment. This private member’s bill, introduced by the Bloc Québécois’s Christian Ouellet, would remove the two week waiting period before claimants may receive EI benefits. The bill passed second reading on April 29, with the government voting against and all of the opposition parties voting in favour. It is not known when Bill C-241 will have its third reading.